15 Global Challenges

1. How can sustainable development be achieved for all, while also addressing global climate change?

2. How can everyone have sufficient clean water?

3. How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

4. How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?

5. How can decision-making be enhanced by improved global foresight?

6. How can information and communications technologies work for everyone?

7. How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?

8. How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune micro-organisms be reduced?

9. How can education make humanity more intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise enough to address its global challenges?

10. How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?

11. How can the changing status of women help improve the human condition?

12. How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated?

13. How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?

14. How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

15. How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?



15 Global Goals (from The Millennium Project – Global Futures)

Sustainable Development

How can sustainable development be achieved for all, while also addressing global climate change? [Challenge 1]

Water

How can everyone have sufficient clean water? [Challenge 2]

Population and Resources

How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? [Challenge 3]

Democratization

How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? [Challenge 4]

Global Long-Term Perspectives

How can policy making be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? [Challenge 5]

Information Technology

How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? [Challenge 6]

The Rich-Poor Gap

How can ethical economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? [Challenge 7]

Health

How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?[Challenge 8]

Capacity to Decide

How can the capacity to decide be improved? [Challenge 9]

Peace and Conflict

How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism and use of weapons of mass destruction? [Challenge 10]

Status of Women

How can the changing status of women help improve the human condition? [Challenge 11]

Transnational Crime

How can transnational organized crime be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? [Challenge 12]

Energy

How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? [Challenge 13]

Science and Technology

How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? [Challenge 14]

Global Ethics

How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? [Challenge 15]





Sustainable Development

How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? [Challenge 1]

 -- Brief Overview --

Climate change threatens the well-being of all humans, especially the poor, who have contributed the least to global warming. They are the most vulnerable to climate change's impacts because they depend on agriculture and fisheries, and they lack financial and technological resources to cope. By 2015 climate change is expected to reduce wheat yields by 30% and rice yields by 15% and to increase their prices by 194% and 121% respectively. The synergy between economic growth and technological innovation has been the most significant engine of change for the last 200 years, but unless we improve our economic, environmental, and social behaviors, the next 100 years could be disastrous. Climate change adaptation and mitigation policies should be integrated into an overall sustainable development strategy. Without sustainable growth, billions more people will be condemned to poverty, and much of civilization could collapse, which is unnecessary since we know enough already to tackle climate change while increasing economic growth.

From 1970 to 2000, atmospheric CO2 concentration increased 1.5 ppm each year, and since then, it has risen 2.1 ppm per year. Last year it climbed even faster, by almost 3 ppm, reaching 392.4 ppm by April 2010. Consequently, the world is warming faster than the latest IPCC projections. Even the most recent estimates may understate reality since they do not take into account permafrost melting. By 2050 another 2.3 billion people could be added to the planet and income per capita could more than double, dramatically increasing greenhouse gases. The Copenhagen Accord achieved a consensus on carbon reduction targets that are internationally verifiable, for the first time. It focused on international cooperation to limit atmospheric CO2 to 450 ppm by 2100, so that the global temperature does not rise by more than 2ºC by 2100. However, scientists have pointed out that the voluntary targets currently declared by major emitters are not low enough to hold CO2 to 450 ppm. There is a growing fear that the target itself is inadequate—that the world needs to lower CO2 to 350 ppm or else the momentum of climate change could grow beyond human ability to reverse it.

Glaciers are melting, polar ice caps are thinning, and coral reefs are dying. Some 30% of fish stocks have already collapsed, and 21% of mammal species and 70% of plants are under threat. Oceans absorb 30 million tons of CO2 each day, increasing their acidity. The number of dead zones—areas with too little oxygen to support life—has doubled every decade since the 1960s. Mangrove forests, salt marshes, and seagrass beds cover less than 1% of the world's seabed but sequester over half the carbon buried in the ocean floor. The habitats of these plants are being lost at a rate of almost 7% a year. Human consumption of natural resources is 30% larger than nature's capacity to regenerate. Global ecosystem services are valued at $16–64 trillion, which far exceeds the sums spent to protect them.

It is time for a U.S.–China Apollo-like 10-year goal and global R&D strategy to address climate change, focusing on new technologies like electric cars, saltwater agriculture, carbon capture and reuse, solar power satellites (a Japanese national goal), animal protein without animals, maglev trains, urban systems ecology, and a global climate change collective intelligence to support better decisions and keep track of it all (See Chapter 3). These technologies would have to supplement other key policy measures including carbon taxes, cap and trade schemes, reduced deforestation, industrial efficiencies, cogeneration, conservation, recycling, and switching government subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The EU has shown that it is possible to continue economic growth while reducing GHG emissions.

Scientists are studying how to create sunshades in space, add iron powder to the oceans to absorb CO2, build towers to suck CO2 from the air, sequester CO2 underground, and reuse carbon at power plants. Other suggestions include retrofitting coal plants to burn leaner and to capture and reuse carbon emissions, raising fuel efficiency standards, growing meat without animals, and increasing vegetarianism (the livestock sector emits more GHGs than transportation does). Other mechanisms could include taxes for carbon, international financial transactions, urban congestion, international travel, and environmental footprints. Such taxes could support international public/private funding mechanism for high-impact technologies. Massive public educational efforts via popular film, television, music, games, and contests should stress what we can do.

Given the difficulty of reaching a unanimous agreement, some argue that alternative forums such as G-20, the Montreal Protocol, or Major Economies Forum may be a more realistic platform to manage climate change. Without a global strategy to address climate change, the environmental movement may turn on the fossil fuel industries. The legal foundations are being laid to sue for damages caused by greenhouse gases. Last year the U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals allowed a group of Mississippi landowners to pursue their lawsuit against over 30 major oil, electric, and coal companies for contributing to rising sea levels and Hurricane Katrina's destruction. Large reinsurance companies estimate the annual economic loss due to climate change could reach $300 billion per year within a decade. Climate change could be accelerated by dangerous feedbacks: melting ice/snow on tundra reflects less light and absorbs more heat, releasing more methane, increasing global warming, melting more tundra; warming oceans water release methane hydrates from the seabed to the air, warming the atmosphere, melting more ice and warming the water, releasing more methane hydrates; the use of methane hydrates or otherwise disturbing deeper sea beds releases more methane to the atmospheric and accelerates global warming; Antarctic melting reflects less light, absorbs more heat, and increases melting; and the Greenland ice sheet (with 20% of world's ice) slides into the ocean. Construction of nuclear power plants has begun to increase, although the risk of accidents, waste management, and terrorist usage are not sufficiently addressed. Challenge 1 will be addressed seriously when green GDP increases while poverty and global greenhouse gas emissions decrease for five years in a row.




Water

How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? [Challenge 2]

 -- Brief Overview --

An additional 1.3 billion people gained access to improved drinking water and 500 million got better sanitation since 1990, yet 900 million still lack clean water and 2.6 billion lack adequate sanitation. By 2025 about 3 billion people could face water scarcity (defined as fewer than 1,000 cubic meters per person per year) due to climate change, population growth, and increasing demand for water per capita. Some 2.2 million children under five die due to unsafe water, inadequate sanitation, and the lack of hygiene every year. Diarrheal disease in children under 15 has a greater impact than HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis combined. Some 90% of developing countries' wastewater is discharged untreated directly into rivers, lakes, or oceans, contributing to the rapid expansion of de-oxygenated dead zones. About 2 million tons of sewage and industrial and agricultural waste is annually discharged into the world's waterways.

Unless major political and technological changes occur, global water demand could be 40% more than current supply by 2030. This would cause conflicts over tradeoffs among agricultural, urban, and ecological uses of water, along with mass migrations and wars. However, water-sharing agreements have been reached even among people in conflict and have led to cooperation in other areas. The UN estimates that $50–60 billion annually between now and 2030 is needed to avoid future water shortages; WHO estimates that every dollar invested in improved sanitation and water produces economic benefits that range from $3 to $34, depending on the region and types of technologies applied.

Agriculture already accounts for 70% of human usage of fresh water, but it needs even more to feed growing populations with increasing incomes. Some 30% of global cereal production could be lost in current production regions due to water scarcity, yet new areas in Russia and Canada could open due to climate change. Cooling systems for energy production require large amounts of water. Energy demand may increase 40% in 20 years; coupled with increased food demands, dramatic changes in water management will be required. Global demand for meat may increase by 50% by 2025 and double by 2050, further accelerating the demand for water per capita. Nature also needs sufficient water to be viable to support all life. Breakthroughs in desalination, like pressurization of seawater to produce vapor jets, filtration via carbon nanotubes, and reverse osmosis, are needed along with less costly pollution treatment and better water catchments. Future demand for fresh water could be reduced by saltwater agriculture on coastlines, producing meat without growing animals, increasing vegetarianism, and the reuse of treated water.

Development planning should integrate the lessons learned from producing more food with less water via drip irrigation and precision agriculture, rainwater collection and irrigation, watershed management, selective introduction of water pricing, and successful community-scale projects around the world. Plans should also help convert degraded or abandoned farmlands to forest or grasslands; invest in household sanitation, reforestation, water storage, and treatment of industrial effluents in multipurpose water schemes; and construct eco-friendly dams, pipelines, and aqueducts to move water from areas of abundance to scarcity. Putting sanitation facilities in village schools could bring girls back to school. Just as it has become popular to calculate someone's carbon footprint, people could calculate their "water footprint."




Democratization

How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? [Challenge 4]

 -- Brief Overview --

There is a growing gap between the recent setbacks in political rights and civil liberties and the emergence of a global democratic consciousness driven by new means of communication and growing interdependencies. According to Freedom House's 2010 report, world democracy and freedom declined for the fourth consecutive year, and press freedom for the eight consecutive year. Freedom declined in 40 countries, while it improved in only 16 countries, and the number of electoral democracies decreased by three, to 116 countries. While 46% of the world lives in 89 "free" countries, and 20% lives in 58 "partly free" countries, 34% (over 2.3 billion people) lives in 47 countries with "not free" stratus. Freedom of the press also declined almost worldwide, with worse signs in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa. Only 16% of the world lives in the 69 countries with "free" press, 44% in 64 countries with "partly free" press, and 40% lives in 63 countries without freedom of the press.

Although the perception and implementation of democracy differ globally, it is generally accepted that democracy is a relationship between a responsible citizenry and a responsive government that encourages participation in the political process and guarantees basic rights.

Connected via the Internet and mobile platforms, the media, and common interests, global-minded citizens are building a new participatory democracy architecture. Individuals, groups, and even countries self-organize around common ideals, independent of conventional institutional controls and regardless of nationality or languages. These new forms of democracy are beginning to wield unparalleled social power. Injustices in different parts of the world become the concern of thousands or millions of people who then pressure local, regional, or international governing systems to address the issue. The increasing role of digital media also responds to increasing concerns over monopolization and control of the news media. However, methods to counter information manipulation and policies to ensure Internet freedom are needed for further democratic evolution. Authoritarian regimes increasingly apply censorship, crackdown on bloggers and Internet journalism, and even use forms of cyberwarfare to undermine democratic functions. Hence, democratic forces will have to improve their effectiveness to ensure that present setbacks do not stop the longer-term trend of democratization.

Some of the factors nurturing democratic values include international news and media systems, global interdependence, increasing literacy, global participation creating ISOs, international treaties, multipolarity and multilateralism in decisionmaking, developments that force global cooperation (such as the financial crisis, terrorism, and climate change), improved quality of governance assessment systems including e-government and transparent judicial systems, and the growing number and power of NGOs. It is critical to improve electoral processes to guarantee legitimate elections and establish internationally accepted election standards use by national and international election observers. Legally binding Internet voting exists in Austria, Australia, Canada, Estonia, France, Japan, and Switzerland, and trials are planned in 24 other countries. Direct voting on issues via the Internet could be next to augment representative democracy.

New accountability mechanisms are being developed for enforcing democracy, such as the Universal Periodic Review by the UN Human Rights Council and the Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. International procedures are needed to assist failed states or regions within states, and intervention strategies designed for when a state constitutes a significant threat to its citizens or others. Corporate monopoly, increased lobbying, and impunity in cases of corruption and systemic human rights violations should be seriously addressed, as well as ideological, political, ethnic, and nationalistic legacies, to maintain the long-range trend toward democracy.

Although making development assistance dependent on good governance has helped in some countries, genuine democracy will be achieved when local people—not external actors—demand government accountability. Since democracies tend not to fight each other and since humanitarian crises are far more likely under authoritarian than democratic regimes, expanding democracy is sine qua non for building a peaceful and just future for all.

Challenge 4 will be addressed seriously when strategies to address threats to democracy are in place, when less than 10% of the world lives in nondemocratic countries, when Internet and media freedom protection is internationally enforced, and when voter participation exceeds 60% in most democratic elections.






Global Long-Term Perspectives

How can policy-making be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? [Challenge 5]

-- Brief Overview --

The BP oil spill and the cancellation of flights across Europe due to the volcano in Iceland expose the need for global, national, and local systems for resilience—the capacity to anticipate, respond, and recover from disasters while identifying future technological and social innovations and opportunities. Implementing resilience systems is one way to make policymaking more sensitive to global long-term perspectives. Related to resilience is the concept of collective intelligence (see Chapter 3), which will be increasingly required to cope with accelerating knowledge explosions, increasing complexities, and interdependencies.

Resilience and collective intelligence systems should scan for change around the world, be interoperable with as many computer systems as possible, and have the ability to identify and assess expert judgments in near real-time around the world (the Real-Time Delphi is an example). The staff for such systems should synthesize futures research from others, calculate State of the Future Indexes for relevant subjects or countries (see Chapter 2), and produce annual state of the future reports. Government future strategy units (see the CD Chapter 4.1) are being informally connected by Singapore's Future Strategy Unit to share best practices, compare research, and verify assumptions, just as the UN Strategic Planning Group does that connects 12 UN agency strategy units. These two networks could also be connected with the Office of the UN Secretary-General to help coordinate national and international strategies and goals. Local and national leaders should make these new systems as transparent and participatory as possible to include and increase the public's intelligence and resilience. As a result, more future-oriented and global-minded voters might elect leaders who are sensitive to global long-term perspectives.

National legislatures could establish standing "Committees for the Future," as Finland has done. National foresight studies should be continually updated, improved, and conducted interactively with other national long-range efforts. Alternative scenarios should be shared with parliamentarians and the public for feedback. They should show cause-and-effect relations and expose decision points leading to different consequences from different strategies. Decisionmakers and their advisors should be trained in futures research for optimal use of these systems (see http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html). Government budgets should consider 5–10 year allocations attached to rolling 5–10 year SOFIs, scenarios, and strategies. Governments with short-term election cycles should consider longer, more stable terms and funds for the staff of parliamentarians. A checklist of ways to better connect futures research to decisionmaking is available in Chapter 12 of the attached CD.

It could be that humanity needs and is ready to create a global, multifaceted general long-range view to help it make better long-range decisions to the benefit of the species. Communications and advertising companies could create memes to help the public become sensitive to global long-term perspectives so that more future-oriented educated publics could support more future-oriented, global-minded politicians. Prizes could be given to recognize the best examples of global long-term decisionmaking. Participatory policymaking processes augmented by e-government services can be created that are informed by futures research. Universities should fund the convergence of disciplines, teach futures research and synthesis as well as analysis, and produce generalists in addition to specialists. Efforts to increase the number and quality of courses on futures concepts and methods should be supported, as well as augmenting standard curricula with futures methodologies converted to teaching techniques that help future-orient instruction.

Although there is increasing recognition that accelerating change requires longer-term perspectives, decisionmakers feel little pressure to consider global long-term perspectives. Nevertheless, attaining long-range goals like landing on the moon or eradicating smallpox that were considered impossible inspired many people to go beyond selfish, short-term interests to great achievements. (An international assessment of such future goals is found in Chapter 4.2 on the CD.) To some degree, the G20 was initiated to improve global long-range policymaking, and one day the G2 (U.S. and China) may lead global climate change and other long-range policies.

Each of the 15 Global Challenges in this chapter and the eight UN Millennium Development Goals—which have become benchmarks for the future—could be the basis for transinstitutional coalitions composed of self-selected governments, corporations, NGOs, universities, and international organizations that are willing to commit the resources and talent to address a specific challenge or goal. Challenge 5 will be addressed seriously when foresight functions are a routine part of most organizations and governments, when national SOFIs are used in at least 50 countries, when the consequences of high-risk projects are routinely considered before they are initiated, and when standing Committees for the Future exist in at least 50 national legislatures.




Capacity to Decide

How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions changes? [Challenge 9]

 -- Brief Overview --

The number and complexity of choices seem to be growing beyond our abilities to analyze and make decisions. The acceleration of change reduces the time from recognition of the need to make a decision to completion of all the steps to make the right decision. The global challenges in this chapter show that the world is increasingly interdependent and intricate, requiring improved abilities for collaborative decision making across institutional, political, and cultural boundaries. Many of the world's decision making processes are inefficient, slow, and ill informed. Today's challenges cannot be addressed by governments, corporations, NGOs, universities, and intergovernmental bodies acting alone; hence, trans-institutional decision making has to be developed and common platforms have to be created for trans-institutional strategic decision making and implementation. Previous economic models continue to mistakenly assume that human beings are well-informed, rational decision makers in spite of research to the contrary. And relying on computer models for decisions proved unreliable in the financial crisis.

More open systems, democratization, and interactive media are involving more people in decision making, which further increases complexity. Fortunately, the world is moving toward ubiquitous computing with institutional and individual collective intelligence systems for "just-in-time" knowledge to inform decisions. Cloud computing, knowledge visualization, and a variety of decision support software (DSS) are increasingly available at falling prices. DSS improves decisions by filtering out bias and providing a more objective assessment of facts and potential options. Some software lets groups select criteria and rate options, some averages people's bets on future events, while others show how issues have alternative positions and how each is supported or refuted by research.

Social networking Web sites let friends and family use simple decision-aid software to find solutions to daily problems. Self-organization of volunteers around the world via Web sites is increasing transparency and creating new forms of decision making. Blogs are increasingly used to support decisions. Nearly half of the 200 million blogs were created from 2007 to 2009. Issues-based information software in e-government allows decision making to be more transparent and accountable. Although cognitive neuroscience promises to improve decision making, little has been applied for the public. Unfortunately, we are still so flooded with so much trivial news that serious attention to serious issues gets little interest, and too much time is wasted going through useless information.

Rapid collection and assessment of many judgments via on-line software can support timelier decision making. Expert advice was most often the view of single individuals or very small groups, but now decision making benefits from online, open systems that invite broad and transparent participation. (See the attached CD Appendix L for an explanation of the Real-Time Delphi.)

In the past, many political and business decisions included competitive intelligence and analysis to guide decision making. As the world continues to globalize, increasing interdependencies, synergetic intelligence, and analysis should also be considered. What synergies are possible among competing businesses, groups, and nations? Synergetic analysis aims to increase "win-win" decisions that assist a larger number of enterprises while reducing the wasted efforts of "win-lose" decisions.

Often decisions are delayed because people don't know something—a condition Google is beginning to eliminate. Vast peer-reviewed data banks are being interconnected so that composites of data from many sources can present the best facts available for a given decision. More user-friendly, powerful, and flexible simulation and modeling software will eventually find its way into more common usage for decision making. Ubiquitous computing will increase the number of decisions per day, constantly changing schedules and priorities. As computers increase in processing power, much of our decision making can be automated, just as the autonomous nervous system manages basic bodily decisions. Decision making will be increasingly augmented by the integration of sensors imbedded in products, in buildings, and in living bodies with a more intelligent Web and institutional and personal collective intelligence software that helps us receive and respond to feedback for improving decisions.

Training programs for decision makers should bring together research on why irrational decisions are made, lessons of history, futures research methods, forecasting, cognitive science, data reliability, utilization of statistics, conventional decision support methods (e.g., PERT, cost/benefit, etc.), collective intelligence, ethical considerations, goal seeking, risk, the role of leadership, transparency, accountability, participatory decision making with new decision support software, e-government, ways to identify and better an organization's improvement system, prioritization processes, and collaborative decision making with different institutions. Challenge 9 will be addressed seriously when the State of the Future Index or similar systems are used regularly in decision making, when national corporate law is modified to recognize trans-institutional organizations, and when at least 50 countries require elected officials to be trained in decision making.




Peace and Conflict

How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism and the use of weapons of mass destruction? [Challenge 10]

 -- Brief Overview --

Although the vast majority of the world is living in peace, half the world continues to be vulnerable to social instability and violence due to the global recession, to aging populations and decreasing water, food, and energy supplies per person, to climate change, and to increasing migrations due to political, environmental, and economic conditions. These can trigger complex interactions of old ethnic and religious conflicts, civil unrest, terrorism, and crime, forcing countries to broaden their security policies from conventional warfare to include asymmetrical conflicts and attacking the root causes of unrest in local communities. Since many countries affected by conflict return to war within five years of a cease-fire, more serious efforts are required to dismantle the structures of violence and establish structures of peace.

Nevertheless, conflicts actually decreased over the past decade, cross-cultural dialogues are flourishing, and intra-state conflicts are increasingly being settled by international interventions. There were 14 conflicts with 1,000 or more deaths in 2010. These occurred in Africa (5), Asia (3), the Americas (2), and the Middle East (3), with 1 conflict classified as worldwide anti-extremism. The probability of a more peaceful world is increasing due to the growth of democracy, international trade, global news media, the Internet, NGOs, satellite surveillance, better access to resources, and the evolution of the UN and regional organizations. The U.S. and Russia signed a nuclear arms reduction treaty, and the Cluster Munitions Convention will come into force in the fall of 2010. The Global Peace Index's rating of 144 countries' peacefulness again declined slightly, reflecting intensification of some conflicts and the economic crisis.

In 2010, there are 124,000 UN peacekeepers from 115 countries in 16 operations. Total military expenditures are about $1.5 trillion per year. There are an estimated 8,100 active nuclear weapons, down from 20,000 in 2002 and 65,000 in 1985. However, there are approximately 1,700 tons of highly enriched uranium and 500 tons of separated plutonium that could produce nuclear weapons. Unmanned aircraft and robot land vehicles are increasingly being used. The nexus of transnational extremist violence is changing from complex organized plots to attacks by single individuals or small independent groups.

Future desktop molecular and pharmaceutical manufacturing and organized crime's access to nuclear materials give single individuals the ability to make and use weapons of mass destruction—from biological weapons to low-level nuclear ("dirty") bombs. IAEA reports that between 1993 and the end of 2009, the Illicit Trafficking Database recorded 1,784 nuclear trafficking incidents (222 during 2009), ranging from illicit disposal efforts to nuclear material of unknown provenance. Cyberwarfare, in both its offensive and defensive aspects, is the object of intensive exploration by major powers; our Internet-dependent society could be destabilized by an individual with a home-hacked cyberweapon. We have to apply cognitive science to improve and connect education and mental health systems to detect and treat individuals who might otherwise grow up to use such weapons, as well as using networks of nanotech sensors to alert authorities to those creating such weapons.

Early warning systems of governments and UN agencies could be better connected with NGOs and the media to help generate the political will to prevent or reduce conflicts. Massive public education programs are needed to promote respect for diversity, equal rights, common ethical values, and the oneness that underlies human diversity. It is less expensive and more effective to attack the root causes of unrest than to stop explosions of violence. Peace strategies without love, compassion, or spiritual outlooks are less likely to work, because intellectual or rational systems cannot overcome the emotional divisions that prevent unity and harmony. Counter-terrorism strategies should include conversations with hardliner groups. The capabilities of Web 2.0 should be increasingly used for self-organized conflict resolution actions, rumor control and fact-finding, reconciliation, and bringing worldwide populations closer together, informing them of each other's lives and ambitions. Backcasted peace scenarios should be created through participatory processes to help change the conflict stories and to show how peace is possible (see CD Chapter 3.7). It is still necessary, however, to bring to justice those responsible for war crimes and to support the International Criminal Court. The ICRC has pointed out that the Geneva Convention needs to be modified to cover intra-state conflicts.

Networks of CDC-like centers to counter impacts of bioterrorism should be supported. Governments should destroy existing stockpiles of biological weapons, create tracking systems for potential bioweapons, establish an international audit system for each weapon type, and increase the use of nonlethal weapons to reduce future revenge cycles. Challenge 10 will be addressed seriously when arms sales and violent crimes decrease by 50% from their peak.

[Also see Counterterrorism--Scenarios, Actions, and Policies]




Transnational Crime

How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? [Challenge 12]

 -- Brief Overview --

The Nuclear Security Summit has focused attention on preventing organized crime and terrorist organizations from getting access to the 500 tons of highly enriched uranium stored around the world. Although the world is waking up to the enormity of the threat of transnational organized crime, it continues to grow, while a global strategy to address this global threat is still lacking. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime has called on all states to develop national strategies to counter TOC as a whole and shift enforcement from drug users to organized crime suppliers, acknowledging that the current approaches to drug control are not working. It also notes states' are not seriously implementing the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime. INTERPOL is collaborating with Australia to open the International Anti-Corruption Academy by the end of 2010, and its 188 member countries can now gain access to the organization's central database management system (I-link), speeding investigations and cooperation. INTERPOL is also collaborating with the private sector to counter Internet-related crime and terrorism and their ability to bring down national information infrastructures. OECD's Financial Action Task Force has made 40 recommendations to counter money laundering.

Havocscope.com estimates world illicit trade to be just over $1 trillion per year, with counterfeiting and intellectual property piracy accounting for $300 billion to $1 trillion, the global drug trade at $386 billion, trade in environmental goods at $63 billion, human trafficking and prostitution at $141 billion, smuggling at $96 billion, and weapons trade at $12 billion. The FBI estimates that online fraud cost U.S. businesses and consumers $560 million in 2009, up from $265 million in 2008. These figures do not include extortion or organized crime's part of the $1 trillion in bribes that the World Bank estimates are paid annually or its part of the estimated $1.5–6.5 trillion in laundered money. Hence the total income could be $2–3 trillion—about twice as big as all the military budgets in the world. Governments can be understood as a series of decision points, with some people in those points vulnerable to very large bribes. Decisions could be bought and sold like heroin, making democracy an illusion.

The financial crisis and bankrupt financial institutions have opened new infiltration routes for TOC crime. The world recession has increased human trafficking and smuggling. Human body parts for transplantation are a new element in TOC. There are up to 27 million people being held in slavery today (the vast majority in Asia), more than during the peak of the African slave trade. UNICEF estimates that 1.2 million children are trafficked every year. The online market in illegally obtained data and tools for committing data theft and other cybercrimes continues to grow, and criminal organizations are offering online hosting of illegal applications. Computer transfers of $2 trillion per day make tempting targets for international cyber criminals.

It is time for an international campaign by all sectors of society to develop a global consensus for action against TOC. Two Conventions help bring some coherence to addressing TOC: the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, which came into force in 2003, and the Council of Europe's Convention on Laundering, which came into force in May 2008. Possibly an addition to one of these conventions or the International Criminal Court could establish a financial prosecution system as a new body to complement the related organizations addressing various parts of TOC. In cooperation with these organizations, the new system would identify and establish priorities on top criminals (defined by the amount of money laundered) to be prosecuted one at a time. It would prepare legal cases, identify suspects' assets that can be frozen, establish the current location of the suspect, assess the local authorities' ability to make an arrest, and send the case to one of a number of preselected courts. Such courts, like UN peacekeeping forces, could be identified before being called into action and trained, and then be ready for instant duty. When all these conditions are met, then all the orders would be executed at the same time to apprehend the criminal, freeze access to the assets, open the court case, and then proceed to the next TOC leader on the priority list. Prosecution would be outside the accused's country. Although extradition is accepted by the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, a new protocol would be necessary for courts to be deputized like military forces for UN peacekeeping, via a lottery system among volunteer countries. After initial government funding, the system would receive its financial support from frozen assets of convicted criminals rather than depending on government contributions.

Challenge 12 will be seriously addressed when money laundering and crime income sources drop by 75% from their peak.




The Rich-Poor Gap

How can ethical economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? [Challenge 7]

 -- Brief Overview --

According to the IMF the world economy shrunk by 0.6% during 2009, per capita income fell about 2% to $10,500, and global unemployment reached 9%. Nevertheless, the world still appears to be on track to halve the 1990 poverty rate (except in sub-Saharan Africa) by 2015. If the crisis and recession had not occurred, the world economy might have been 7% larger and 90 million people might not have fallen into extreme poverty by the end of 2010. The IMF estimates a 4.2% growth in 2010. Much of this recovery is led by the developing world, with expected growth of 6.3% in 2010 and 6.6% in 2011–13, compared with growth in advanced economies at 2.3% and 2.4% in those years. The contribution of BRIC to world GDP in 2009 was over 23.5%, while a growing middle-class in developing countries opens new markets.

By 2015, the IMF expects unemployment to be 6.2% in advanced economies and 5.4% in emerging and developing economies. The World Bank estimates that the number of people living on less than $1.25 a day might be about 1 billion in 2015 and 826 million in 2020, while those living on less than $2 a day might be 2.06 billion and 1.92 billion respectively.

The 2009 net ODA from DAC countries was $120 billion and is expected to grow to $126 billion in 2010. Remittances account for 20% of GDP in some countries. These fell by an estimated 6% in 2009, to about $317 billion, and are expected to grow by 2% in 2010. UNCTAD forecasts FDI inflows to recover and grow from $1 trillion in 2009 to $1.8 trillion in 2011. While FDI flows to developed countries continue to decline (falling 41% in 2009), FDI between developing countries (South-South) is growing rapidly.

The WTO forecasts world trade to grow 9.5% in 2010, after a 12.2% drop in 2009. In 2011, the trade balance of emerging and developing economies might reach $663.5 billion, while that of advanced economies could further deteriorate to –$423.9 billion. By 2015, the account balance of emerging and developing economies is expected to grow to $769 billion. The high tech–low wage conditions of China and India make it very difficult for other developing countries to compete; hence, developing countries should rethink their export-led growth strategies.

Structural imbalances in world trade have to be corrected to assure fair competition, respect of human rights, labor and environmental standards, as well as efficient management of the global commons and prevention of monopolies. China's monetary policy adjustments could help other countries' economic development and access to world markets.

Although agriculture employs 37.5% of the labor force, its contribution to GDP is barely 6%. If the WTO eliminated agricultural export subsidies, developing countries would gain $72 billion per year according to UNDP. Since 1976, microfinance institutions provided loans to over 113 million clients worldwide. Financing to the private sector by the MDBs increased from less than $4 billion 20 years ago to $40 billion in 2009, while the IFC mobilized $14.5 billion in new investments in private companies in developing countries. However, strengthening of anti-trust agencies, easy regulations, and favorable taxation system are fundamental for small- and medium-sized businesses development.

Direction from central government with relatively free markets is competing with the decentralized, individualized private enterprise for lifting masses out of poverty. New indicators for measuring progress and economic development are being developed to help managers move from short-term profit-based strategies to long-term viability. The world needs a long-term strategic plan for a global partnership between rich and poor to improve economic security and create 50 million jobs per year over the next 10 years in developing countries. Such a plan should use the strength of free markets and rules based on global ethics. Ethical market economies require improved fair trade, increased economic freedom, a "level playing field" guaranteed by an honest judicial system and by governments that provide political stability, a chance to participate in local development decisions, business incentives to comply with social and environmental goals, a healthy investment climate, and access to land, capital, and information. An alternative to trying to beat the brain drain is to connect people overseas to the development process back home by a variety of Internet systems. Technical assistance to leapfrog into new activities via tele-education and tele-work should be coupled with microcredit mechanisms for people to seek markets rather than non-existent jobs.

Challenge 7 will be addressed seriously when market economy abuses and corruption by companies and governments are intensively prosecuted and when the inequality gap—by all definitions—declines in 8 out of 10 years.


Population and Resources

How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? [Challenge 3]

 -- Brief Overview --

Today's 6.9 billion population is expected to grow to 9.1 billion by 2050 and could reach 11 billion if fertility rates do not continue to fall. If the rates do continue to fall, then world population could actually shrink by 2100, creating an elderly world difficult to support. Nearly all the population increases will be in urban areas in developing countries. Over 20 countries have falling populations, which could increase to 44 countries by 2050, with the vast majority of them in Europe. Scientific and medical breakthroughs over the next 50 years will give people longer and more productive lives than most would believe possible today. Globally, life expectancy at birth is 68 years, and some forecast that it could increase by one year each year by 2030. The global population profile is changing from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility.

About 20% of the world will be over 60 by 2050, and 20% of the older population will be aged 80 or more. Some 20% of Europeans are 60 or older compared with 10% in Asia and Latin America and 5% in Africa. To reduce the economic burden on younger generations and to keep up living standards, people will work longer and create many forms of tele-work, part-time work, and job rotation. The economic slowdown and unemployment, combined with elevated food and fuel prices, pushed some 100 million people into chronic hunger. Over 1 billion people were undernourished in 2009. In 2010, WFP plans to bring food assistance to more than 90 million people in 73 countries, yet in some of these countries, agricultural lands are being bought by foreign investors. Some 2.5 million hectares (about 20% of all EU farmland) in developing countries have been subject to transactions or talks involving foreigners since 2004, in deals estimated to be worth $20–30 billion. Government-backed foreign investors have bought farmlands around the world totaling about half the size of Europe. Meanwhile, 25% of all fish stocks are overharvested; the entire value of fish caught is $85 billion, but $27 billion spent on government subsidies, mostly in rich countries, lead to overexploitation.

To keep up with population and economic growth, food production should increase by 70% and meat production by over 200 million metric tons to reach 470 million metric tons by 2050, which increases demands on water and land, further increasing prices and competition between rural and urban requirements. An additional $83 billion per year will be needed to keep up with these new demands. Cutting the number of hungry people in half by 2015 would generate global annual incremental benefits of $120 billion by 2015. Some 30–40% of food production from farm to mouth is lost in many countries.

Climate change and monocultures undermine biodiversity, which is critical for agricultural viability. Developing countries could experience a decline of 9–21% in overall potential agricultural productivity by 2050 as a result of global warming. An increasingly difficult fungus to stop (Ug99) could wipe out more than 80% of the world's wheat crops unless new wheat varieties resistant to it are created. Conventional breeding techniques can take 9–12 years; hence, a food crisis may be inevitable.

New agricultural approaches will be needed, such as meat production without growing animals, better rain-fed agriculture and irrigation management, genetic engineering for higher-yielding and drought-tolerant crops, precision agriculture and aquaculture, and saltwater agriculture on coastlines to produce food for human and animals, biofuels, and pulp for the paper industry as well as to absorb CO2, reduce the drain on freshwater agriculture and land, and increase employment. An animal rights group has offered $1 million to the first producers of commercially viable in-vitro chicken by mid-2012.

Urban population is projected to jump from 3.4 billion in 2009 to 6.3 billion in 2050. During the same period, the 1 billion people living in slums today could double. Without sufficient nutrition, shelter, water, and sanitation produced by more intelligent human-nature symbioses, increased migrations, conflicts, and disease seem inevitable. ICT continues to improve the match between needs and resources worldwide in real time, and nanotech will help reduce material use per unit of output while increasing quality.

Challenge 3 will be addressed seriously when the annual growth in world population drops to fewer than 30 million, the number of hungry people decreases by half, the infant mortality rate decreases by two-thirds between 2000 and 2015, and new approaches to aging become economically viable.




Health

How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? [Challenge 8]

 -- Brief Overview --

Even though population is increasing, 30% fewer children under five died in 2008 than in 1990 and total mortality from infectious disease fell from 25% in 1998 to 16% in 2008. Vaccines supplied by UNICEF reach 55% of the world's children. Partnerships between the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization and the Gates Foundation, WHO, UNICEF, and the World Bank have greatly improved global health cooperation over the past 10 years. Because the world is aging and increasingly sedentary, cardiovascular disease is now the leading cause of death in the developing as well as the industrial world; however, infectious diseases are the second largest killer and cause about 67% of all preventable deaths of children under five (pneumonia, diarrhea, malaria, and measles). Urbanization, travel, trade, increased encroachment on animal territory, and concentrated livestock production move infectious organisms to more people in less time than ever before and could trigger new pandemics.

The H1N1 virus (swine flu) infected millions of humans in all 214 countries and territories within a year, killing 18,000, and will be active another year. Although spreading very fast, the mortality was relatively low, causing WHO to review its decision to declare it a pandemic. H5N1 (avian flu) killed half of the people infected, spread very slowly, has mutated three times in the last 15 years, and could mutate again, increasing its impact. Over the past 40 years, 39 new infectious diseases have been discovered, 20 diseases are now drug-resistant, and old diseases have reappeared, such as cholera, yellow fever, plague, dengue fever, meningitis, hemorrhagic fever, and diphtheria. In the last five years, more than 1,100 epidemics have been verified. About 75% of emerging pathogens are zoonotic (they jump species).

Some 33 million people are living with HIV/AIDS; 2.7 million were newly infected and 2 million died during 2009. The virus is unstable and mutates enough that $800 million of research has not produced a successful vaccine. So far, it cannot be cured, only stabilized, and it has become resistant to multiple drugs. While it appears that new cases peaked in the late 1990s and mortality peaked in 2004, predictions of 2.3 million new cases per year are likely to be true into the 2030s unless prevention is more successful. Sharing needles is thought to be three times more likely than sexual intercourse to transmit HIV; male circumcision may reduce infection by 50%; and since HIV crosses the placenta and breast milk to children, preventive treatments are important.

While small numbers of people with Ebola and West Nile viruses have receive media attention, the bigger health impacts are from schistosomiasis (200 million cases), dengue fever (50 million new cases a year), measles (30 million cases a year), onchocerciasis (18 million cases in Africa), typhoid and leishmaniasis (approximately 12 million each globally), rotavirus (600,000 child deaths per year), and shigella childhood diarrhea (600,000 deaths per year). About half of the world's population is at risk of several endemic diseases. Climate change is altering insect and disease patterns. Vector reproduction, parasite development cycle, and bite frequency generally rise with temperature; therefore, malaria, tick-borne encephalitis, and dengue fever are expected to become increasingly widespread. Hepatitis B infects up to 2 billion people. There is more TB in the world now than ever before (2 million deaths, 9 million new infections in 2009), yet in the last 15 years 43 million TB cases have been treated and 36 million have been cured. There were 863 000 malaria deaths in 2009 (80% occurred in children younger than 5 in sub-Saharan Africa), yet 38 countries (9 in Africa) documented reductions of more than 50% in the number of malaria cases between 2000 and 2008. Enhanced optimism and a marked increase in funding for malaria control have prompted calls for malaria eradication.

To counter bioterrorism, R&D has increased for improved bio-sensors and general vaccines able to boost the immune system to contain any deadly infection. Such vaccines could be placed around the world like fire extinguishers. Some small viruses have been found to attack large viruses, offering the possibility of a new route to disease cures. Other problems may come from synthetic biology laboratories of the future. In the meantime, the global shortage of 4.3 million health workers is growing. People are living longer and health care costs are increasing, making tele-medicine and self-diagnosis via biochip sensors and online expert systems increasingly necessary.

At the moment, the best ways to address infectious diseases remain early detection, accurate reporting, prompt isolation, transparency of information, increased investment in clean drinking water, sanitation, and handwashing. Also are WHO's eHealth systems, International Health Regulations to address SARS-like threats, immunization programs, and the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network as global responses to this challenge. Scientists are working to develop a genetically modified mosquito that would not carry the malaria parasite. Better trade security will be necessary to prevent increased food- or animal-borne disease. Viral incidence in animals is being mapped in Africa, China, and South Asia to divert epidemics before they reach humans. Future uses of genetic data, software, and nanotechnology will help detect and treat disease at the genetic or molecular level.

If Asian poultry farmers received incentives to replace their live-market businesses—the source of some viruses—with frozen-products markets, the annual loss of life and economic impacts could be reduced. WHO's eHealth systems, International Health Regulations to address SARS-like threats, immunization programs, and the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network are global responses to this challenge. Scientists are working to develop a genetically modified mosquito that would not carry the malaria parasite. Better trade security will be necessary to prevent increased food- or animal-borne disease. Viral incidence in animals is being mapped in Africa, China, and South Asia to divert epidemics before they reach humans. Future uses of genetic data, software, and nanotechnology will help detect and treat disease at the genetic or molecular level.




Status of Women

How can the changing status of women help improve the human condition? [Challenge 11]

 -- Brief Overview --

Countries with smaller gender gaps have better development opportunities, superior education, healthier children, and greater social stability. Increased participation of women in political and economic decisionmaking around the world has been slow but steady. The ratio of women in national parliaments has increased from 13.8% in 2000 to 18.9% in 2010, while the current ratio of women in ministerial positions is 29% in health, 26% in culture, 25% in education, and 4% in defense, while 5% are heads of government. Some 100 countries have mandatory or voluntary gender quotas for their legislatures.

The Gender Equity Index 2009 computed by Social Watch shows that in most countries the gender gap is not closing and progress is largely dependent on the gender discrimination status in the country, and not on the region or economic development. The index decreased from 35% in 2008 to 34.5% in 2009, with setbacks in 51% of the countries that were already in the worse relative situation, while 77% of those in a comparatively better situation made progress.

Most progress was made in achieving universal primary education. Of the estimated 72 million primary-age children who are not in school, girls only slightly outnumber boys. However, only 53% of countries achieved gender parity in both primary and secondary education, with the gap for secondary schooling widening in some regions. Around 126 million children are still involved in hazardous work, and the economic crisis threatens the education status of a whole generation of children. Meanwhile, 50% of university students worldwide are women, and in many countries they outnumber men.

Women account for over 40% of the world's workforce but earn less than 25% of the wages. In developing countries, they represent over 60% of all unpaid family workers, typically with no job security and benefits. Environmental disasters, food and financial crises, armed conflicts, and forced displacement further increase vulnerabilities and generate new forms of disadvantages for women and children. However, women control over 70% of global consumer spending and by 2015 might generate 70% of the global household income growth.

Some religious and patriarchal structures continue to impede women's liberty and access to family planning in many cultures. Unsafe and illegal abortions cause some 5.3 million disabilities and 68,000 deaths each year. Of the more than 500,000 maternal deaths per year, 99% happen in developing countries, with the highest prevalence in Africa and Asia due to high fertility rates and weak health systems. At the current rate of improvement, the UN goal to reduce maternal mortality to 120 deaths per 100,000 live births by 2015 will not be achieved.

About 2.5 million people from 127 different countries are being trafficked around the world, out of which approximately 70% are women and girls and up to 50% are minors, the "largest slave trade in history." The Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, especially Women and Children, has 137 parties and 117 signatories, but it has yet to be adopted and enforced by some key countries. Despite significant progress in setting international mechanisms to eradicate all forms of violence against women, about half of the countries have no legislation to stop gender-based discrimination, and crimes against women continue to be perpetrated withimpunity. Men attacking women is the largest war today, as measured by death and casualties per year. About one-third of women suffer gender-based violence during their lives, and one in five have been be a victim of rape or attempted rape, especially during armed conflicts.

Educating men and ending harmful gender stereotyping would help, but it's a slow process. Meanwhile, women are increasingly cutting through cultural hierarchies via the Internet and mobile platforms to get information, form groups, coordinate actions, and participate in networks. Mothers should use their educational role in the family to more assertively nurture mutual respect between men and women. Elementary and secondary school systems should consider teaching martial arts and other forms of self-defense in physical education classes for girls. Legal systems should guarantee gender parity and women's access to credit, land, technology, training, health care, and child care. Infringements on women's rights should be subject to prosecution and international sanctions.

Challenge 11 will be addressed seriously when there is gender parity in school enrollment, literacy, and access to capital, when discriminatory laws are gone, when discrimination and violence against women is prosecuted, and when there are essentially equal numbers of men and women in policymaking positions.


Globalization of Information Technology

How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? [Challenge 6]

 -- Brief Overview --

Nearly 30% of humanity is connected to the Internet, which has evolved from a passive information repository (Web 1.0) to a user-generated and participatory system (Web 2.0) and is morphing into Web 3.0, a more intelligent partner that has knowledge about the meaning of the information it stores and the ability to reason with that knowledge. With 5 billion mobile phone subscriptions, falling prices for iPhone-like devices, and the built environment getting multimedia implanted transceivers and a variety of sensors, it is reasonable to assume that the majority of the world—now urbanized—will experience ubiquitous computing and eventually spend most of its time in some form of technologically augmented reality. Today, mobile devices have become personal electronic companions, combining computer, GPS, telephone, camera, projector, music player, TV, and a library that is "aware" of its surroundings.

Self-organizing social networks are augmenting hierarchical management of natural disasters, scientific research, and environmental monitoring. These new forms of transnational democracy are giving birth to unprecedented international conscience and action. Such open systems seem natural responses to an increasing complexity that has grown beyond hierarchical control. Open source software's non-ownership model may become a significant element in the next economic system. One of the "next big things" could be the emergence of collective intelligences for issues, businesses, and countries, forming new kinds of organizations able to address problems and opportunities without conventional management. Collective intelligence can be thought of as a continually emerging property from synergies among people, software, and information that continually learns from feedback to produce just-in-time knowledge for better decisions than any one of these elements acting alone. Real-time stream communications shorten the time it takes from situational awareness to decisions. However, growth of live streaming video puts stress on the Internet's capacities, requiring new approaches to keep up with bandwidth demand. Businesses are building offices and holding meetings in Second Life and other cyberworlds that compete with conventional reality. Wikipedia has become the world's encyclopedia, albeit with information reliability problems and struggles to counter disinformation campaigns, and people are trusting their data and software to "cloud computing" on distant Net-connected servers rather than their own computers.

The Net has also created a new "virtual world" of a different type, blending into a single intercommunicating entertainment/image entity the domains of television, film, photography, music, and the visual Web (e.g. YouTube), so that images and performances flow freely among the various modalities. (There are also 14,000 Net "radio stations".) It has also created an analogous intellectual world of information, linking newspapers, magazines, Web blogs and searches, TV news and information, and books and libraries.

Issues of intellectual property are unresolved, however, and governments are wrestling with how to control harmful content. Humanity, the built environment, and ubiquitous computing are becoming a continuum of consciousness and technology reflecting the full range of human behavior, from individual philanthropy to organized crime. Low-cost computers are replacing high-cost weapons as an instrument of power in asymmetrical warfare. Cyberspace is also becoming a battle zone among competing commercial interests and ideological adversaries as well as a key tool for extremists and a battleground between cybercriminals and law enforcement. Fundamental rethinking will be required to ensure that the world's population will be able to have reasonable faith in information. We have to learn how to counter future forms of information warfare that otherwise could lead to the distrust of all forms of information in cyberspace.

Meanwhile, Internet bases with wireless transmission are being constructed in remote villages; cell phones with Internet access are being designed for educational and business access by the lowest-income groups; and innovative programs are being created to connect the poorest 2 billion people to the evolving nervous system of civilization. Social networking spurs the growth of political consciousness and popular power, and e-government systems allow citizens to receive valuable information from their leaders, provide feedback to them, and carry out needed transactions without time-consuming and possibly corrupt human intermediaries. E-government systems exist to some degree for the majority of the world; the UN has conducted comparative assessments of the e-government status of its 191 member states since 2003.

Developing countries and foreign aid should have expanded broadband access as national priorities, to make it easier to use the Internet to connect developing-country professionals overseas with the development processes back home, improve educational and business usage, and make e-government and other forms of development more available. Challenge 6 will have been addressed seriously when Internet access and basic tele-education are free and available universally and when basic tele-medicine is commonplace everywhere.




Energy

How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? [Challenge 13]

 -- Brief Overview --

World energy demand is expected to increase by between 40% to 50% over the next 25 years, with the vast majority of the increase being in China and India. Without major policy and technological changes (which could be triggered by the BP oil spill), fossil fuels will dominate energy sources, making large-scale carbon capture, storage, and/or reuse a top priority to reduce climate change. The total global renewable energy investment for 2010 is estimated at $200 billion, up nearly 50% from 2009. To meet total energy demand, an annual $1.1 trillion (1.4% of global GDP) is needed, and an additional $10.5-trillion investment by 2030 will be necessary if the world is to meet the goal of keeping atmospheric CO2 concentration below 450ppm. In the meantime, the world spends more than $310 billion on energy subsidies every year. G20 leaders pledged to phase out fossil fuel subsidies in the medium term. Eliminating subsidies could lead to a 10% reduction of GHG emissions by 2050.

Auto manufacturers around the world are racing to create alternatives to petroleum-powered cars. US billionaire Warren Buffett and Germany's Daimler have teamed with China's BYD to accelerate electric car production. In 2008, for the first time, the majority of US and EU increases in the production of electricity came from renewable sources instead of fossil or nuclear sources. The total global renewable energy investment for 2010 is estimated at $200 billion, up nearly 50% from 2009, and is expected to continue to increase. Meanwhile, 1.5 billion people have no access to electricity and 3 billion still rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating. Up to a billion more have access only to unreliable electricity networks. In the IEA reference scenario, the number of people lacking access to electricity drops by only 200 million by 2030 and the number actually increases in Africa. The World Bank estimates that countries with underperforming energy systems may lose up to 1–2% of growth potential every year, while billions of gallons of petroleum are wasted in traffic jams around the world.

Massive saltwater irrigation can produce 7,600 liters/hectare-year of biofuels via halophyte plants and 200,000 liters/hectare-year via algae and cyanobacteria, instead of using less-efficient freshwater biofuel production that has catastrophic effects on food supply and prices. Exxon announced its investment of $600 million to produce liquid transportation fuels from algae. CO2 emissions from coal plants might be re-used to produce biofuels and perhaps carbon nanotubes. The global market value for liquid biofuel and bioenergy manufacturing is estimated at $102.5 billion in 2009 and is projected to grow to nearly $170.4 billion by 2014.

Japan plans to have a working space solar power system in orbit by 2030 and may launch an initial experimental satellite as early as 2011. Such space-based solar energy systems could meet the world's electricity requirements indefinitely without nuclear waste or GHG emissions. Eventually, such a system of satellites could manage base-load electricity on a global basis. Drilling to hot rock (two to five kilometers down) could make geothermal energy available where conventional geothermal has not been possible. A total of 438 nuclear reactors are operating today; 57 are under construction. Hundreds of nuclear power plants around the world are planned for decommissioning, yet costs are very high. Estimates to decommission a nuclear reactor range from $325 to over $500 million. Spent fuel rods are often stored on site. Another Chernobyl-type accident or nuclear hijacking could halt expansion of nuclear power.

Innovations are accelerating: concentrator photovoltaics that dramatically reduce costs; waste heat from power plants, human bodies, and microchips to produce electricity; genomics to create hydrogen-producing photosynthesis; buildings to produce more energy than consumed; solar energy to produce hydrogen; microbial fuel cells to generate electricity; and compact fluorescent light bulbs and light-emitting diodes to significantly conserve energy, as would nanotubes that conduct electricity. Solar farms can focus sunlight atop towers with Stirling engines and other generators. Estimates for the potential of wind energy continue to increase, but so do maintenance problems. Plastic nanotech photovoltaics printed on buildings and other surfaces could cut costs and increase efficiency. The transition to a hydrogen infrastructure may be too expensive and too late to affect climate change, while plug-in hybrids, flex-fuel, electric, and compressed air vehicles could provide alternatives to petroleum-only vehicles sooner. Unused nighttime power production could supply electric and plug-in hybrid cars. National unique all-electric car programs are being implemented in Denmark and Israel, with discussions being held in 30 other countries.

Challenge 13 will have been addressed seriously when the total energy production from environmentally benign processes surpasses other sources for five years in a row and when atmospheric CO2 additions drop for at least five years.




Science and Technology

How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? [Challenge 14]

 -- Brief Overview --

Within five years, nearly half the world will have access to all the scientific and technological knowledge available on the Internet via mobile phones. It is reasonable to assume that one day everyone in the world will have access to all of the world's knowledge that is publically available anywhere, anytime.

As the growth and power of the Internet continues to surprise much of the world, the syntheses among the sciences and resulting technological breakthroughs may have even greater impacts to transform the human condition. The ability to invent life has been demonstrated. The J. Craig Venter Institute synthesized a 1.08-million base pair chromosome to construct the bacterial cell Mycoplasma mycoides JCVI-syn1.0, the first self-replicating synthetic cell. Venter forecasts that as computer code is written to create software to augment human capabilities, so too genetic code will be written to create life forms to augment civilization.

Synthetic neurobiologists are creating "co-processors" for the brain to cure blindness or make us more intelligent. The lab-created Isx-9 molecule can make nerve stem cells mature into brain cells, leading the way to brain regeneration. And other stem cell applications could revitalize any part of the body in the future. IBM plans to have the Sequoia 20-petaflops computer ready for DOE by 2012, which is estimated to be the first computer with the processing power of a human brain. A transistor has been built from seven atoms. There are already machines that can be controlled by thought alone. The acceleration of S&T innovations from improved instrumentation, communications among scientists, and synergies among nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, cognitive science, and quantum technology continues to fundamentally change the prospects for civilization.

Millions of people passively volunteer their computers' excess capacity to run data analysis programs to help speed up research in biomedicine, mathematics, artificial intelligence, and cancer. Over 50 million volunteer citizen scientists gather and analyze data, dramatically expanding the capacity of scientific research around the world. Patients with rare diseases share real-time clinical data to assist doctors. Free university courses, curricula, and tools in science and technology are increasing on the Web to share extraordinary breakthroughs.

Scanning electron microscopes can see 0.01 nanometers (the distance between a hydrogen nucleus and its electron), and the Hubble telescope has seen 13.2 billion light-years away. The Large Hadron Collider is exploring the nature of dark energy. Photons have been slowed and accelerated, and four photons have been precisely controlled on a silicon chip to learn how to create optical computers. Over 450 planets have been discovered orbiting other stars. A record five photons have been entangled (quantum entanglement is the simultaneous change of entangled objects separated in space) to explore futuristic communications, security, simple teleportation, and the transport of energy. External light can be concentrated inside the body for photodynamic therapy and to power implanted devices. Nanobots the size of blood cells may one day enter the body to diagnose and provide therapies and internal VR imagery. MRI brain imaging shows primitive pictures of real-time thought processes. Magnetic signals from a single electron buried inside a solid sample have been detected.

A new sensor can detect over 2,000 viruses and about 900 bacteria within 24 hours. Extinct mammoth's blood now lives using ancient DNA. Nanotechnology-based products have grown by 25% in the last year to over 800 items today for the release of medicine in the body, thin-film photovoltaics, super hard surfaces, and many lightweight strong objects. DNA scans open the possibility of customized medicine and eliminating inherited diseases. Viruses have been used to help build efficient batteries that are half the size of a human cell. Transistors measuring 10-by-1 atoms have been produced out of graphene, a material just 1 atom thick—the thinnest material in the world. Graphene may ultimately replace silicon in many nano-electronic applications. Over 12 million robots do everything from routine surgery to building cars and managing farms, even marrying couples in Japan.

Despite these achievements, the risks from acceleration and globalization of S&T remain (see CD Chapter 3.5) and give rise to future ethical issues (see CD Chapters 5 and 11). Do we have a right to clone our selves or bring dinosaurs back to life? The environmental health impacts of nanotech are in question. The spread of new robotic applications, particularly in warfare, has raised questions about the wisdom of autonomous machines controlled by humans on the other side of the world. Many of these advances raise complex issues of international affairs, ethics, and law. Anti-science views proliferate via blogs around the world. However, supporting basic science is necessary to improve knowledge that applied science and technology draws on to improve the human condition. We need a global collective intelligence system to track S&T advances, forecast consequences, and document a range of views so that politicians and the public can understand the potential consequences of new S&T. Currently the InterAcademy Panel, a worldwide network of 100 science academies, is increasing access to S&T information and cooperation around the world, and heads of government science information portals are beginning to collaborate.

Challenge 14 will have been addressed seriously when the funding of R&D for societal needs reaches parity with funding for weapons and when an international science and technology organization is established that routinely connects world S&T knowledge for use in R&D priority setting and legislation.


Global Ethics

How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? [Challenge 15]

 -- Brief Overview --

The global financial crisis demonstrated the interdependence of economics and ethics. While quick fixes have pulled the world out of recession, it is not clear that ethics has been addressed sufficiently to prevent future crises. International meetings of the G-20 and other forums are trying to reach agreements about how to improve systems in order to increase integrity, financial transparency, and accountability. The 140 countries of the UN Convention against Corruption have not come to an agreement on how to verify compliance with this treaty. As a result, Transparency International and others will provide an alternative compliance mechanism by contacting governments about their anti-corruption efforts and reporting the results publically at the Conference of the Parties in 2011.

Multinational business ethics is the focus of the UN Global Compact, with over 6,000 business participants, which has improved business-NGO collaboration, raised the profile of corporate responsibility programs, and increased businesses' non-financial reporting mandates in many countries. Although 1,800 businesses have been delisted for failing to report on their progress, the Compact grows by over 100 businesses per month. The approximately 70,000 multinational businesses constitute a potential force for global ethics if this movement continues. The International Criminal Court has successfully tried political leaders and proceedings are Web-cast. News media, blogs, mobile phone cameras, ethics commissions, and NGOs are increasingly exposing unethical decisions and corrupt practices. Collective responsibility for global ethics in decision making is embryonic but growing. Corporate social responsibility programs, ethical marketing, and social investing are increasing. Global ethics also are emerging around the world through the evolution of ISO standards and international treaties that are defining the norms of civilization.

At the same time, 12–27 million people are slaves today, more than at the height of the nineteenth century slave trade; the World Bank estimates over $1 trillion is paid each year in bribes; and organized crime takes in $2–3 trillion annually. Concerns are also growing about ties between organized crime and terrorism threatening the future of democracy. Meanwhile, trivial news and entertainment flood people's minds with unneeded products and unethical behavior.

Some experts speculate that the world is heading for a "singularity"—a time in which technological change is so fast and significant that people today are incapable of conceiving what life might be like beyond 2025. This acceleration of technological change seems beyond the ability of most people and institutions to comprehend, leading to ethical uncertainties. Do we have the right to clone ourselves, or to rewrite genetic codes to create thousands of new life forms, or to genetically change ourselves and future generations into new species? Individuals can now experiment with genetics to create new life forms in home labs without the safeguards of government and commercial laboratories.

Globalization and advanced technology allow fewer people to do more damage and in less time, so that possibly one day a single individual may be able to make and deploy a weapon of mass destruction. Hence the healthy psychological development of all children should be the concern of everyone. Such observations may be not new, but the consequences of failure to realize their importance may be much more serious in the future than in the past. New technologies also allow more people to do more good than ever before, such as single individuals organizing worldwide actions around specific ethical issues via the Internet. The moral will to act in collaboration across national, institutional, religious, and ideological boundaries that is necessary to address today's global challenges requires global ethics. Public morality based on religious metaphysics is challenged daily by growing secularism, leaving many unsure about the moral basis for decision making. This has been compounded for some, as the Catholic Church is embarrassed by the sexual misconduct of many of its priests. Unfortunately, religions and ideologies that claim moral superiority give rise to "we-they" splits.

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights continues to shape discussions about global ethics and decisions across religious and ideological divides. UNESCO's Global Ethics Observatory is a set of databases of ethics institutions, teaching, codes of contact, experts, etc. UNESCO and the World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology have initiated meetings on the ethical issues of climate change and assessed the advisability of creating a Universal Declaration of Ethical Principles in Relation to Climate Change. The climate change strategy of cap and trade gives rise to the ethical question, Should one population be allowed to pay another for their right to pollute? Similarly, is it right for pharmaceutical trials to move to poorer nations where rules are less strict and costs are lower?

Entertainment media could promote memes like "make decisions that are good for me, you, and the world." We need to create better incentives for ethics in global decisions, promote parental guidance to establish a sense of values, encourage respect for legitimate authority, support the identification and success of the influence of role models, implement cost-effective strategies for global education for a more enlightened world, and make behavior match the values people say they believe in. Spiritual education should grow in balance with the new powers given to humanity by technological progress. Challenge 15 will be addressed seriously when corruption decreases by 50% from the World Bank estimates of 2006, when ethical business standards are internationally practiced and regularly audited, when essentially all students receive education in ethics and responsible citizenship, and when there is a general acknowledgment that global ethics transcends religion and nationality.